Source: Forecasting Agricultural Risk for Smarter Supply Chains
In the UK, over 70% of fresh fruit, and nearly all soybeans, rice, grain maize, and botanicals are imported to ensure year-round supply. That makes forecasting agricultural risk—not just globally, but commercially—critical.
We’re building a platform to translate long-term agricultural stress data into real-world sourcing intelligence. That means calibrating environmental to actual production outcomes and market decisions.
Take the UK as a case study here. Current data shows an 18% likelihood that the agri-stress will exceed its long-term average—indicating rising pressure on key crops like wheat and oilseed rape. These crops, which dominate Eastern UK rotations, offer a relatively controlled environment to test our models before tackling more complex import-heavy commodities like fresh produce and botanicals.
What we’re seeing is a warning: volume and quality limits are starting to show. If we calibrate these indicators properly, they can unlock more strategic sourcing, smarter timing, and more sustainable procurement practices.
We’re inviting growers, importers, and processors to collaborate with us in testing and refining this system. Your insight will help shape a more intelligent, resilient approach to food sourcing.
Interested in joining us? Get in touch—we’d love to collaborate.
Dr Wayne Martindale, FIFST 