Source: Agricultural risk- we are not thinking ahead
The next twenty years will see European wheat production fall by at least 20 percent, that is what the risk models show us. Alternative crop producers, these are the pulse, ancient grain and vine growers are currently 20 years early in North Western Europe and are ahead of the loss curve. Wheat is not alone here, to use a phrase from someone who made a lot of them, models are made to be tested and are usually broken by early adopters. The current risk equation built into the models we use is limited by today’s genetics and practice. Even so, it is a caution to think the very necessary thinking-ahead part of the equation is still not there for food security policies in many government offices or companies. Making sure crops are made for the environment they grow in is far from new, revolutions and a Nobel were made from delivering this two generations ago and it worked.
It takes about 8 to 15 years to get a new variety from initial crossbreeding to full commercial market volume. This is laid out as- Pre-breeding and Crossbreeding (4 to 7 years), Field Trials (3 to 4 years), Variety Testing and Official Approval (2 to 3 years), Seed Propagation and Commercial Volume (1 to 2 years). Consider that the delivery is on time and not constrained by weather, budget, workforce or market acceptance then I think 20 years is a favorable estimate currently. It’s time to ditch those glossy wankernomic vlogs on how serious food security is and deliver, simply ‘just stop it’, the irony is just getting too much
Dr Wayne Martindale, FIFST 